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A survey of past and future changes in global river flow (2024)
Presentation / Conference
Gudmundsson, L., Brunner, M., Döll, P., Fluet-Chouinard, E., N. Gosling, S., Hirabayashi, Y., …Zhou, X. (2024, April). A survey of past and future changes in global river flow. Presented at EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria & Online

Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change (2024)
Journal Article
Porkka, M., Virkki, V., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Gerten, D., Gleeson, T., Mohan, C., …Kummu, M. (2024). Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change. Nature Water, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00208-7

Human actions compromise the many life-supporting functions provided by the freshwater cycle. Yet, scientific understanding of anthropogenic freshwater change and its long-term evolution is limited. Here, using a multi-model ensemble of global hydrol... Read More about Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change.

Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a) (2024)
Journal Article
Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., del Rocío Rivas López, M., …Bechtold, M. (2024). Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). Geoscientific Model Development, 17(1), 1-51. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set... Read More about Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a).

Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models (2023)
Journal Article
Gnann, S., Reinecke, R., Stein, L., Wada, Y., Thiery, W., Satoh, Y., …Wagener, T. (2023). Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models. Nature Water, 1, 1079-1090. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00160-y

AbstractGlobal water models are increasingly used to understand past, present and future water cycles, but disagreements between simulated variables make model-based inferences uncertain. Although there is empirical evidence of different large-scale... Read More about Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models.

Use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir operations in global hydrological models: a case study from the CONUS (2023)
Journal Article
Otta, K., Müller Schmied, H., Gosling, S. N., & Hanasaki, N. (2023). Use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir operations in global hydrological models: a case study from the CONUS. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-215

Although river discharge simulations from global hydrological models have undergone extensive validation, there has been less validation of reservoir operations, primarily because of limited observational data. However, recent advancements in satelli... Read More about Use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir operations in global hydrological models: a case study from the CONUS.

Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a) (2023)
Working Paper
Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., Rivas López, M. D. R., …Bechtold, M. Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, www.isimip.org) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human... Read More about Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a).

Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models (2022)
Report
Gnann, S., Reinecke, R., Stein, L., Wada, Y., Thiery, W., Müller Schmid, H., …Wagener, T. (2022). Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models

Global water models are widely used for policy-making and in scientific studies, but substantial inter-model differences highlight the need for additional evaluation. Here we evaluate global water models by assessing so-called functional relationship... Read More about Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models.

Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes (2022)
Journal Article
Virkki, V., Alanärä, E., Porkka, M., Ahopelto, L., Gleeson, T., Mohan, C., …Kummu, M. (2022). Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26(12), 3315-3336. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022

Human actions and climate change have drastically altered river flows across the world, resulting in adverse effects on riverine ecosystems. Environmental flows (EFs) have emerged as a prominent tool for safeguarding the riverine ecosystems, but at t... Read More about Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes.

The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change (2022)
Journal Article
Satoh, Y., Yoshimura, K., Pokhrel, Y., Kim, H., Shiogama, H., Yokohata, T., …Oki, T. (2022). The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change. Nature Communications, 13(1), Article 3287. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2

Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examin... Read More about The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change.

Multi-model evaluation of catchment- and global-scale hydrological model simulations of drought characteristics across eight large river catchments (2022)
Journal Article
Kumar, A., Gosling, S. N., Johnson, M. F., Jones, M. D., Zaherpour, J., Kumar, R., …Masaki, Y. (2022). Multi-model evaluation of catchment- and global-scale hydrological model simulations of drought characteristics across eight large river catchments. Advances in Water Resources, 165, Article 104212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2022.104212

Although global- and catchment-scale hydrological models are often shown to accurately simulate long-term runoff time-series, far less is known about their suitability for capturing hydrological extremes, such as droughts. Here we evaluated simulatio... Read More about Multi-model evaluation of catchment- and global-scale hydrological model simulations of drought characteristics across eight large river catchments.

Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming (2021)
Journal Article
Thompson, J. R., Gosling, S. N., Zaherpour, J., & Laizé, C. L. R. (2021). Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming. Earth's Future, 9(11), Article e2021EF002048. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002048

The hydrological characteristics of a river, including the magnitude and timing of high and low flows, are important determinants of its ecological functioning. Climate change will alter these characteristics, triggering ecological changes in river e... Read More about Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming.

Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes (2021)
Journal Article
Thiery, W., Lange, S., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C. F., Gudmundsson, L., Seneviratne, S. I., …Wada, Y. (2021). Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes. Science, 374(6564), 158-160. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi7339

Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades (1–4). Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across thei... Read More about Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes.

Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations (2021)
Journal Article
Boulange, J., Hanasaki, N., Satoh, Y., Yokohata, T., Shiogama, H., Burek, P., …Wanders, N. (2021). Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations. Environmental Research Letters, 16(10), Article 104028. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc

Future flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium clima... Read More about Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations.

A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: A source of disagreement in future drought assessments (2021)
Journal Article
Satoh, Y., Shiogama, H., Hanasaki, N., Pokhrel, Y., Boulange, J. E. S., Burek, P., …Yokohata, T. (2021). A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: A source of disagreement in future drought assessments. Environmental Research Letters, 16(10), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2348

Droughts are anticipated to intensify in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought indices, makes it difficult to compare drought assessments. This issue is widely known,... Read More about A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: A source of disagreement in future drought assessments.

Understanding each other’s models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication (2021)
Journal Article
Telteu, C. E., Müller Schmied, H., Thiery, W., Leng, G., Burek, P., Liu, X., …Herz, F. (2021). Understanding each other’s models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication. Geoscientific Model Development, 14(6), 3843-3878. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021

Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle on the global scale and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modelling frameworks and consider different underlying... Read More about Understanding each other’s models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication.