All Outputs (2)

Individual preventive social distancing during an epidemic may have negative population-level outcomes (2018)
Journal Article
Leung, K. Y., Ball, F., Sirl, D., & Britton, T. (2018). Individual preventive social distancing during an epidemic may have negative population-level outcomes. Interface, 15, doi:10.1098/rsif.2018.0296. ISSN 1742-5662

The outbreak of an infectious disease in a human population can lead to individuals responding with preventive measures in an attempt to avoid getting infected. This leads to changes in contact patterns. However, as we show in this paper, rational be... Read More about Individual preventive social distancing during an epidemic may have negative population-level outcomes.

Susceptibility sets and the final outcome of collective Reed–Frost epidemics (2018)
Journal Article
Ball, F. (2019). Susceptibility sets and the final outcome of collective Reed–Frost epidemics. Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, 21(2), 401–421. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11009-018-9631-6

This paper is concerned with exact results for the final outcome of stochastic SIR (susceptible → infective → recovered) epidemics among a closed, finite and homogeneously mixing population. The factorial moments of the number of initial susceptibles... Read More about Susceptibility sets and the final outcome of collective Reed–Frost epidemics.