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Regional protest and electoral fraud: evidence from analysis of new data on Russian protest

Lankina, Tomila; Skovoroda, Rodion

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Authors

Tomila Lankina

Rodion Skovoroda



Abstract

Does electoral fraud encourage post-electoral protests? To explore the likelihood that citizens would pick up on electoral irregularities perpetrated in their region and engage in post-electoral protest we analyse regional protest event data and voting results for 95,415 precincts in Russia's 2012 presidential elections. We find that regional fraud is associated with post-electoral sub-national protests. Our analysis has important theoretical and policy implications. Protests that not only target specific issues like fraud, but show awareness of where it had been perpetrated can be much more effective than those where blame attribution is vague and generic.

Citation

Lankina, T., & Skovoroda, R. (2017). Regional protest and electoral fraud: evidence from analysis of new data on Russian protest. East European Politics, 33(2), 253-274. https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2016.1261018

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Oct 31, 2016
Online Publication Date Nov 28, 2016
Publication Date Jan 1, 2017
Deposit Date May 23, 2017
Publicly Available Date Mar 29, 2024
Journal East European Politics
Print ISSN 2159-9165
Electronic ISSN 2159-9173
Publisher Routledge
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 33
Issue 2
Pages 253-274
DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2016.1261018
Keywords Protests, electoral fraud, last-digit fraud detection method, Russia, sub-national, local, competitive authoritarian, electoral authoritarian, uncertainty, democracy
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/971300
Publisher URL http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/21599165.2016.1261018
Additional Information This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in East European Politics on 28 November 2016, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/21599165.2016.1261018.

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