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Relative importance of herd-level risk factors for probability of infection with paratuberculosis in Irish dairy herds

McAloon, Conor G.; Doherty, Michael; Doherty, Michael L.; Whyte, Paul; More, Simon J.; O'Grady, Luke; Citer, Lorna; Green, Martin J.

Authors

Conor G. McAloon

Michael Doherty

Michael L. Doherty

Paul Whyte

Simon J. More

Luke O'Grady

Lorna Citer

Martin J. Green martin.green@nottingham.ac.uk



Abstract

Control of paratuberculosis is challenging due to the relatively poor performance of diagnostic tests, a prolonged incubation period, and protracted environmental survival. Prioritization of herd-level interventions is not possible because putative risk factors are often not supported by risk factor studies. The objective for this study was to investigate the relative importance of risk factors for an increased probability of herd paratuberculosis infection. Risk assessment data, comprehensive animal purchase history, and diagnostic test data were available for 936 Irish dairy herds. Both logistic regression and a Bayesian β regression on the outcome of a latent class analysis were conducted. Population attributable fractions and proportional reduction in variance explained were calculated for each variable in the logistic and Bayesian models, respectively. Routine use of the calving area for sick or lame cows was found to be a significant explanatory covariate in both models. Purchasing behavior for the previous 10 yr was not found to be significant. For the logistic model, length of time calves spend in the calving pen (25%) and routine use of the calving pen for sick or lame animals (14%) had the highest attributable fractions. For the Bayesian model, the overall R2 was 16%. Dry cow cleanliness (7%) and routine use of the calving area for sick or lame cows (6%) and had the highest proportional reduction in variance explained. These findings provide support for several management practices commonly recommended as part of paratuberculosis control programs; however, a large proportion of the observed variation in probability of infection remained unexplained, suggesting other important risks factors may exist.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Nov 30, 2017
Journal Journal of Dairy Science
Print ISSN 0022-0302
Electronic ISSN 1525-3198
Publisher American Dairy Science Association
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 100
Issue 11
Pages 9245-9257
APA6 Citation McAloon, C. G., Doherty, M., Whyte, P., More, S. J., O'Grady, L., Citer, L., & Green, M. J. (2017). Relative importance of herd-level risk factors for probability of infection with paratuberculosis in Irish dairy herds. Journal of Dairy Science, 100(11), (9245-9257). doi:10.3168/jds.2017-12985. ISSN 0022-0302
DOI https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2017-12985
Keywords Paratuberculosis, Johne’s disease, Risk factor
Publisher URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022030217308305?via%3Dihub
Copyright Statement Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingh.../end_user_agreement.pdf
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Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/end_user_agreement.pdf





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