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Inferring R0 in emerging epidemics: the effect of common population structure is small

Trapman, Pieter; Ball, Frank; Dhersin, Jean-St�phane; Tran, Viet Chi; Wallinga, Jacco; Britton, Tom

Authors

Pieter Trapman

FRANK BALL frank.ball@nottingham.ac.uk
Professor of Applied Probability

Jean-St�phane Dhersin

Viet Chi Tran

Jacco Wallinga

Tom Britton



Abstract

When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease, it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number R0 and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These parameters are estimated from the observed incidence of new cases and information about the infectious contact structures of the population in which the disease spreads. However, the relevant infectious contact structures for new, emerging infections are often unknown or hard to obtain. Here, we show that, for many common true underlying heterogeneous contact structures, the simplification to neglect such structures and instead assume that all contacts are made homogeneously in the whole population results in conservative estimates for R0 and the required control effort. This means that robust control policies can be planned during the early stages of an outbreak, using such conservative estimates of the required control effort.

Citation

Trapman, P., Ball, F., Dhersin, J., Tran, V. C., Wallinga, J., & Britton, T. (2016). Inferring R0 in emerging epidemics: the effect of common population structure is small. Interface, 13(121), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0288

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Aug 1, 2016
Online Publication Date Aug 1, 2016
Publication Date Aug 31, 2016
Deposit Date Feb 10, 2017
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Journal Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Electronic ISSN 1742-5689
Publisher The Royal Society
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 13
Issue 121
Article Number 20160288
Pages 1-9
DOI https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0288
Keywords Infectious disease modelling, Emerging epidemics, Population Structure, Real-time spread, R0
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/803877
Publisher URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0288

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