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SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: Lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return

Enright, Jessica; Hill, Edward M.; Stage, Helena B.; Bolton, Kirsty J.; Nixon, Emily J.; Fairbanks, Emma L.; Tang, Maria L.; Brooks-Pollock, Ellen; Dyson, Louise; Budd, Chris J.; Hoyle, Rebecca B.; Schewe, Lars; Gog, Julia R.; Tildesley, Michael J.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: Lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return Thumbnail


Authors

Jessica Enright

Edward M. Hill

Helena B. Stage

Emily J. Nixon

Emma L. Fairbanks

Maria L. Tang

Ellen Brooks-Pollock

Louise Dyson

Chris J. Budd

Rebecca B. Hoyle

Lars Schewe

Julia R. Gog

Michael J. Tildesley



Abstract

In this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in late 2020 was consistent with the expected importation of infection from arriving students. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission. The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimes spillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the local population. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. We found the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms of reducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation is likely to be much more important for reducing transmission during term time. Finally, we explored strategies for testing students in the context of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a major outbreak.

Citation

Enright, J., Hill, E. M., Stage, H. B., Bolton, K. J., Nixon, E. J., Fairbanks, E. L., …Tildesley, M. J. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: Lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return. Royal Society Open Science, 8(8), Article 210310. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210310

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jul 16, 2021
Online Publication Date Aug 4, 2021
Publication Date Aug 1, 2021
Deposit Date Sep 24, 2021
Publicly Available Date Sep 24, 2021
Journal Royal Society Open Science
Electronic ISSN 2054-5703
Publisher The Royal Society
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 8
Issue 8
Article Number 210310
DOI https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210310
Keywords Multidisciplinary
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/6299057
Publisher URL https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsos.210310

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