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Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

Costa, Flávia; Sullivan, Martin J. P.; Lewis, Simon L.; Affum-Baffoe, Kofi; Castilho, Carolina; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Sanchez, Aida Cuni; Qie, Lan; Sonké, Bonaventure; Martinez, Rodolfo Vasquez; Ewango, Corneille E. N.; Hubau, Wannes; Baker, Timothy R.; Marimon, Beatriz; Brienen, Roel J. W.; Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel; Galbraith, David; Gloor, Manuel; Malhi, Yadvinder; Aiba, Shin-Ichiro; Sukri, Rahayu; Alexiades, Miguel N.; Almeida, Everton C.; de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida; Dávila, Esteban Álvarez; Loayza, Patricia Alvarez; Andrade, Ana; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arets, Eric J. M. M.; Arroyo, Luzmila; Ashton, Peter; Aymard C., Gerardo; Baccaro, Fabrício B.; Banin, Lindsay F.; Baraloto, Christopher; Camargo, Plínio Barbosa; Barlow, Jos; Barroso, Jorcely; Bastin, Jean-François; Batterman, Sarah A.; Beeckman, Hans; Begne, Serge K.; Bennett, Amy C.; Berenguer, Erika; Berry, Nicholas; Blanc, Lilian; Boeckx, Pascal; Bogaert, Jan; Bonal, Damien; Bongers, Frans; Bradford, Matt; Brearley, Francis Q.; Brncic, Terry; Brown, Foster; Burban, Benoit; Camargo, José Luís; Castro, Wendeson; Céron, Carlos; Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto; Moscoso, Victor Chama; Chave, Jerôme; Chezeaux, Eric; Clark, Connie J.; de Souza, Fernanda Coelho; Collins, Murray; Comiskey, James A.; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Medina, Massiel Corrales; da Costa, Lola; Dančák, Martin; Dargie, Greta C.; Davies, Stuart; Cardozo, Nallaret Davila; de Haulleville, Thales; de Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon; Derroire, Géraldine; Di Fiore, Anthony; Doucet, Jean-Louis; Dourdain, Aurélie; Droissant, Vincent; Duque, Luisa Fernanda; Ekoungoulou, Romeo; Elias, Fernando; Erwin, Terry; Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane; Fauset, Sophie; Stahl, Clement; Hall, Jefferson S.; Singh, James; Gilpin, Martin; Hamer, Keith C.; Ferreira, Joice; Llampazo, Gerardo Flores; Hamilton, Alan C.; Harris, David J.; Hart, Terese B.; Hédl, Radim; Herault, Bruno; Herrera, Rafael; Higuchi, Niro; Hladik, Annette; Coronado, Eurídice Honorio; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Huasco, Walter Huaraca; Jeffery, Kathryn J.; Jimenez-Rojas, Eliana; Kalamandeen, Michelle; Djuikouo, Marie Noël Kamdem; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Umetsu, Ricardo Keichi; Kho, Lip Khoon; Killeen, Timothy; Foli, Ernest; Klitgaard, Bente; Koch, Alexander; Labrière, Nicolas; Laurance, William; Laurance, Susan; Leal, Miguel E.; Levesley, Aurora; Lima, Adriano J. N.; Lisingo, Janvier; Lopes, Aline P.; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Lovejoy, Tom; Lovett, Jon C.; Lowe, Richard; Magnusson, William E.; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Manzatto, Ângelo Gilberto; Marimon, Ben Hur; Marshall, Andrew R.; Marthews, Toby; de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias; Maycock, Colin; Melgaço, Karina; Mendoza, Casimiro; Metali, Faizah; Mihindou, Vianet; Milliken, William; Mitchard, Edward T. A.; Morandi, Paulo S.; Mossman, Hannah L.; Nagy, Laszlo; Nascimento, Henrique; Neill, David; Nilus, Reuben; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Palacios, Walter; Camacho, Nadir Pallqui; Peacock, Julie; Pendry, Colin; Peñuela Mora, Maria Cristina; Pickavance, Georgia C.; Pipoly, John; Pitman, Nigel; Playfair, Maureen; Poorter, Lourens; Poulsen, John R.; Poulsen, Axel Dalberg; Preziosi, Richard; Prieto, Adriana; Primack, Richard B.; Ramírez-Angulo, Hirma; Reitsma, Jan; Réjou-Méchain, Maxime; Correa, Zorayda Restrepo; de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues; Bayona, Lily Rodriguez; Roopsind, Anand; Rudas, Agustín; Rutishauser, Ervan; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Salomão, Rafael P.; Schietti, Juliana; Sheil, Douglas; Silva, Richarlly C.; Espejo, Javier Silva; Valeria, Camila Silva; Silveira, Marcos; Simo-Droissart, Murielle; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Kitayama, Kanehiro; Ford, Andrew; Soto Shareva, Yahn Carlos; Stropp, Juliana; Sunderland, Terry; Svátek, Martin; Swaine, Michael D.; Swamy, Varun; Taedoumg, Hermann; Talbot, Joey; Taplin, James; Taylor, David; ter Steege, Hans; Terborgh, John; Thomas, Raquel; Thomas, Sean C.; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Umunay, Peter; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela; van der Heijden, Geertje; van der Hout, Peter; van der Meer, Peter; van Nieuwstadt, Mark; Verbeeck, Hans; Vernimmen, Ronald; Vicentini, Alberto; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Torre, Emilio Vilanova; Vleminckx, Jason; Vos, Vincent; Wang, Ophelia; White, Lee J. T.; Willcock, Simon; Woods, John T.; Wortel, Verginia; Young, Kenneth; Zagt, Roderick; Zemagho, Lise; Zuidema, Pieter A.; Zwerts, Joeri A.; Phillips, Oliver L.

Authors

Flávia Costa

Martin J. P. Sullivan

Simon L. Lewis

Kofi Affum-Baffoe

Carolina Castilho

Ted R. Feldpausch

Aida Cuni Sanchez

Lan Qie

Bonaventure Sonké

Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez

Corneille E. N. Ewango

Wannes Hubau

Timothy R. Baker

Beatriz Marimon

Roel J. W. Brienen

Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza

David Galbraith

Manuel Gloor

Yadvinder Malhi

Shin-Ichiro Aiba

Rahayu Sukri

Miguel N. Alexiades

Everton C. Almeida

Edmar Almeida de Oliveira

Esteban Álvarez Dávila

Patricia Alvarez Loayza

Ana Andrade

Simone Aparecida Vieira

Luiz E. O. C. Aragão

Alejandro Araujo-Murakami

Eric J. M. M. Arets

Luzmila Arroyo

Peter Ashton

Gerardo Aymard C.

Fabrício B. Baccaro

Lindsay F. Banin

Christopher Baraloto

Plínio Barbosa Camargo

Jos Barlow

Jorcely Barroso

Jean-François Bastin

Sarah A. Batterman

Hans Beeckman

Serge K. Begne

Amy C. Bennett

Erika Berenguer

Nicholas Berry

Lilian Blanc

Pascal Boeckx

Jan Bogaert

Damien Bonal

Frans Bongers

Matt Bradford

Francis Q. Brearley

Terry Brncic

Foster Brown

Benoit Burban

José Luís Camargo

Wendeson Castro

Carlos Céron

Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro

Victor Chama Moscoso

Jerôme Chave

Eric Chezeaux

Connie J. Clark

Fernanda Coelho de Souza

Murray Collins

James A. Comiskey

Fernando Cornejo Valverde

Massiel Corrales Medina

Lola da Costa

Martin Dančák

Greta C. Dargie

Stuart Davies

Nallaret Davila Cardozo

Thales de Haulleville

Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros

Jhon del Aguila Pasquel

Géraldine Derroire

Anthony Di Fiore

Jean-Louis Doucet

Aurélie Dourdain

Vincent Droissant

Luisa Fernanda Duque

Romeo Ekoungoulou

Fernando Elias

Terry Erwin

Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert

Sophie Fauset

Clement Stahl

Jefferson S. Hall

James Singh

Martin Gilpin

Keith C. Hamer

Joice Ferreira

Gerardo Flores Llampazo

Alan C. Hamilton

David J. Harris

Terese B. Hart

Radim Hédl

Bruno Herault

Rafael Herrera

Niro Higuchi

Annette Hladik

Eurídice Honorio Coronado

Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco

Walter Huaraca Huasco

Kathryn J. Jeffery

Eliana Jimenez-Rojas

Michelle Kalamandeen

Marie Noël Kamdem Djuikouo

Elizabeth Kearsley

Ricardo Keichi Umetsu

Lip Khoon Kho

Timothy Killeen

Ernest Foli

Bente Klitgaard

Alexander Koch

Nicolas Labrière

William Laurance

Susan Laurance

Miguel E. Leal

Aurora Levesley

Adriano J. N. Lima

Janvier Lisingo

Aline P. Lopes

Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez

Tom Lovejoy

Jon C. Lovett

Richard Lowe

William E. Magnusson

Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte

Ângelo Gilberto Manzatto

Ben Hur Marimon

Andrew R. Marshall

Toby Marthews

Simone Matias de Almeida Reis

Colin Maycock

Karina Melgaço

Casimiro Mendoza

Faizah Metali

Vianet Mihindou

William Milliken

Edward T. A. Mitchard

Paulo S. Morandi

Hannah L. Mossman

Laszlo Nagy

Henrique Nascimento

David Neill

Reuben Nilus

Percy Núñez Vargas

Walter Palacios

Nadir Pallqui Camacho

Julie Peacock

Colin Pendry

Maria Cristina Peñuela Mora

Georgia C. Pickavance

John Pipoly

Nigel Pitman

Maureen Playfair

Lourens Poorter

John R. Poulsen

Axel Dalberg Poulsen

Richard Preziosi

Adriana Prieto

Richard B. Primack

Hirma Ramírez-Angulo

Jan Reitsma

Maxime Réjou-Méchain

Zorayda Restrepo Correa

Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa

Lily Rodriguez Bayona

Anand Roopsind

Agustín Rudas

Ervan Rutishauser

Kamariah Abu Salim

Rafael P. Salomão

Juliana Schietti

Douglas Sheil

Richarlly C. Silva

Javier Silva Espejo

Camila Silva Valeria

Marcos Silveira

Murielle Simo-Droissart

Marcelo Fragomeni Simon

Kanehiro Kitayama

Andrew Ford

Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva

Juliana Stropp

Terry Sunderland

Martin Svátek

Michael D. Swaine

Varun Swamy

Hermann Taedoumg

Joey Talbot

James Taplin

David Taylor

Hans ter Steege

John Terborgh

Raquel Thomas

Sean C. Thomas

Armando Torres-Lezama

Peter Umunay

Luis Valenzuela Gamarra

Geertje van der Heijden

Peter van der Hout

Peter van der Meer

Mark van Nieuwstadt

Hans Verbeeck

Ronald Vernimmen

Alberto Vicentini

Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira

Emilio Vilanova Torre

Jason Vleminckx

Vincent Vos

Ophelia Wang

Lee J. T. White

Simon Willcock

John T. Woods

Verginia Wortel

Kenneth Young

Roderick Zagt

Lise Zemagho

Pieter A. Zuidema

Joeri A. Zwerts

Oliver L. Phillips



Abstract

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date May 22, 2020
Journal Science
Print ISSN 0036-8075
Electronic ISSN 1095-9203
Publisher American Association for the Advancement of Science
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 368
Issue 6493
Pages 869-874
APA6 Citation Costa, F., Sullivan, M. J. P., Lewis, S. L., Affum-Baffoe, K., Castilho, C., Feldpausch, T. R., …Phillips, O. L. (2020). Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests. Science, 368(6493), 869-874. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578
DOI https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578
Keywords Multidisciplinary
Publisher URL https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6493/869

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