Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea

Bartosova, Alena; Capell, Ren�; Olesen, J�rgen E.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Donnelly, Chantal; Hyyti�inen, Kari; Pihlainen, Sampo; Zandersen, Marianne; Arheimer, Berit

Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea Thumbnail


Authors

Alena Bartosova

Ren� Capell

J�rgen E. Olesen

Mohamed Jabloun

Jens Christian Refsgaard

Chantal Donnelly

Kari Hyyti�inen

Sampo Pihlainen

Marianne Zandersen

Berit Arheimer



Abstract

© 2019, The Author(s). The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.

Citation

Bartosova, A., Capell, R., Olesen, J. E., Jabloun, M., Refsgaard, J. C., Donnelly, C., …Arheimer, B. (2019). Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 48(11), 1325-1336. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Apr 15, 2019
Online Publication Date Sep 21, 2019
Publication Date Nov 1, 2019
Deposit Date Nov 27, 2019
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Journal Ambio
Print ISSN 0044-7447
Electronic ISSN 1654-7209
Publisher Springer Verlag
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 48
Issue 11
Pages 1325-1336
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5
Keywords Ecology; Geography, Planning and Development; Environmental Chemistry; General Medicine
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/3423114
Publisher URL https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13280-019-01243-5
Additional Information Received: 16 June 2018; Revised: 15 April 2019; Accepted: 19 August 2019; First Online: 21 September 2019

Files




Downloadable Citations