Alena Bartosova
Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea
Bartosova, Alena; Capell, Ren�; Olesen, J�rgen E.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Donnelly, Chantal; Hyyti�inen, Kari; Pihlainen, Sampo; Zandersen, Marianne; Arheimer, Berit
Authors
Ren� Capell
J�rgen E. Olesen
Mohamed Jabloun
Jens Christian Refsgaard
Chantal Donnelly
Kari Hyyti�inen
Sampo Pihlainen
Marianne Zandersen
Berit Arheimer
Abstract
© 2019, The Author(s). The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.
Citation
Bartosova, A., Capell, R., Olesen, J. E., Jabloun, M., Refsgaard, J. C., Donnelly, C., …Arheimer, B. (2019). Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 48(11), 1325-1336. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | Apr 15, 2019 |
Online Publication Date | Sep 21, 2019 |
Publication Date | Nov 1, 2019 |
Deposit Date | Nov 27, 2019 |
Publicly Available Date | Mar 28, 2024 |
Journal | Ambio |
Print ISSN | 0044-7447 |
Electronic ISSN | 1654-7209 |
Publisher | Springer Verlag |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 48 |
Issue | 11 |
Pages | 1325-1336 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5 |
Keywords | Ecology; Geography, Planning and Development; Environmental Chemistry; General Medicine |
Public URL | https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/3423114 |
Publisher URL | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13280-019-01243-5 |
Additional Information | Received: 16 June 2018; Revised: 15 April 2019; Accepted: 19 August 2019; First Online: 21 September 2019 |
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