Analysis of the inherent energy-food dilemma of the Nigerian Biofuels Policy using Partial Equilibrium Model: the Nigerian Energy-Food Model (NEFM)

Ndukwe Agbai, Dick; Wilson, Paul

Abstract

The Nigerian government plans to produce bioethanol from its staple food crops to increase transport fuel supply, reduce imported motors fuels, create jobs and diversify its oil dependent economy. However, the conflicts between the benefits of biofuels and the potential impacts on food security requires analysis to quantify fuel, food, economy and employment metrics to inform policy decision making. Drawing upon a bespoke partial equilibrium model, the Nigerian Energy-Food Model (NEFM), populated using secondary data, indicates that cassava is the ‘optimal’ feedstock for profitable ethanol production in all six geo-political zones of Nigeria. Results show that Nigeria has the potential to produce sufficient feedstock and food crops to meet the current domestic ethanol and crop consumption demands, without affecting domestic food security in the short-run, due to availability of vast fertile uncultivated arable land and unemployed labour, providing positive energy, economic and employment benefits in the short term. Nevertheless, future expansion of the bioethanol programme to double current national ethanol and food consumption demands, would result in significant impacts on national land use change, negatively impacting on domestic food production and increasing food prices. It is recommended that Nigeria’s future biofuels' policy requires a carefully-articulated land-use policy to ensure that land allocation to bioethanol feedstock production is tempered by the need to allocate arable land to food production, in order to avoid consequential adverse impacts on its food security.

Citation

Ndukwe Agbai, D., & Wilson, P. (2018). Analysis of the inherent energy-food dilemma of the Nigerian Biofuels Policy using Partial Equilibrium Model: the Nigerian Energy-Food Model (NEFM). Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 98, 500-514. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.043

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Sep 25, 2018
• Online Publication Date: Oct 25, 2018
• Publication Date: 2018-12
• Deposit Date: Sep 28, 2018
• Publicly Available Date: Oct 26, 2019
• Print ISSN: 1364-0321
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 98
• Pages: 500-514
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.043
• Keywords: Energy-Food Dilemma, Biofuels, Partial Equilibrium Model, Nigeria, Policy Analysis
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1138847
• Publisher URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032118306919
• Contract Date: Sep 28, 2018