Scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation for cost benefit analysis of the cargo screening process

Sherman, Galina; Siebers, Peer-Olaf; Aickelin, Uwe; Menachof, David

Abstract

In this paper we present our ideas for conducting a cost
benefit analysis by using three different methods: scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation. Then we introduce our case study and examine these methods in a real world situation. We show how these tools can be used and what the results are for each of them. Our aim is to conduct a comparison of these different probabilistic methods of estimating costs for port security risk assessment studies. Methodologically, we are trying to understand the limits of all the tools mentioned above by focusing on rare events.

Citation

Sherman, G., Siebers, P., Aickelin, U., & Menachof, D. (2010). Scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation for cost benefit analysis of the cargo screening process. In A. G. Bruzzone, L. Landau, G. G. Cunha, & S. Saetta (Eds.), The International Workshop on Applied Modelling and Simulation: WAMS, Buizos, 2010. COPPE/UFRJ

• Publication Date: Jan 1, 2010
• Deposit Date: Mar 25, 2011
• Publicly Available Date: Mar 25, 2011
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Book Title: The International Workshop on Applied Modelling and Simulation: WAMS, Buizos, 2010
• ISBN: 9788528501353
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1013156
• Publisher URL: http://evento.lamce.coppe.ufrj.br/wams.2010/proceedings.html
• Related Public URLs: http://evento.lamce.coppe.ufrj.br/wams.2010/proceedings.html
• Additional Information: Paper originally presented at the International Workshop on Applied Modelling and Simulation, held 5-7 May 2010.