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Scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation for cost benefit analysis of the cargo screening process

Sherman, Galina; Siebers, Peer-Olaf; Aickelin, Uwe; Menachof, David

Authors

Galina Sherman G.Sherman@2008.hull.ac.uk

Uwe Aickelin uwe.aickelin@nottingham.ac.uk

David Menachof d.menachof@hull.ac.uk



Contributors

Agostino G. Bruzzone
Editor

Luiz Landau
Editor

Gerson Gomes Cunha
Editor

Stefano Saetta
Editor

Abstract

In this paper we present our ideas for conducting a cost
benefit analysis by using three different methods: scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation. Then we introduce our case study and examine these methods in a real world situation. We show how these tools can be used and what the results are for each of them. Our aim is to conduct a comparison of these different probabilistic methods of estimating costs for port security risk assessment studies. Methodologically, we are trying to understand the limits of all the tools mentioned above by focusing on rare events.

Publication Date Jan 1, 2010
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Book Title The International Workshop on Applied Modelling and Simulation: WAMS, Buizos, 2010
ISBN 9788528501353
APA6 Citation Sherman, G., Siebers, P., Aickelin, U., & Menachof, D. (2010). Scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation for cost benefit analysis of the cargo screening process. In L. Landau, A. G. Bruzzone, G. G. Cunha, & S. Saetta (Eds.), The International Workshop on Applied Modelling and Simulation: WAMS, Buizos, 2010COPPE/UFRJ
Publisher URL http://evento.lamce.coppe.ufrj.br/wams.2010/proceedings.html
Related Public URLs http://evento.lamce.coppe.ufrj.br/wams.2010/proceedings.html
Copyright Statement Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingh.../end_user_agreement.pdf
Additional Information Paper originally presented at the International Workshop on Applied Modelling and Simulation, held 5-7 May 2010.

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Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/end_user_agreement.pdf





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