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Real-time tracking of self-reported symptoms to predict potential COVID-19

Menni, Cristina; Valdes, Ana M.; Freidin, Maxim B.; Sudre, Carole H.; Nguyen, Long H.; Drew, David A.; Ganesh, Sajaysurya; Varsavsky, Thomas; Cardoso, M. Jorge; El-Sayed Moustafa, Julia S.; Visconti, Alessia; Hysi, Pirro; Bowyer, Ruth C. E.; Mangino, Massimo; Falchi, Mario; Wolf, Jonathan; Ourselin, Sebastien; Chan, Andrew T.; Steves, Claire J.; Spector, Tim D.

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Authors

Cristina Menni

Maxim B. Freidin

Carole H. Sudre

Long H. Nguyen

David A. Drew

Sajaysurya Ganesh

Thomas Varsavsky

M. Jorge Cardoso

Julia S. El-Sayed Moustafa

Alessia Visconti

Pirro Hysi

Ruth C. E. Bowyer

Massimo Mangino

Mario Falchi

Jonathan Wolf

Sebastien Ourselin

Andrew T. Chan

Claire J. Steves

Tim D. Spector



Abstract

A total of 2,618,862 participants reported their potential symptoms of COVID-19 on a smartphone-based app. Among the 18,401 who had undergone a SARS-CoV-2 test, the proportion of participants who reported loss of smell and taste was higher in those with a positive test result (4,668 of 7,178 individuals; 65.03%) than in those with a negative test result (2,436 of 11,223 participants; 21.71%) (odds ratio = 6.74; 95% confidence interval = 6.31–7.21). A model combining symptoms to predict probable infection was applied to the data from all app users who reported symptoms (805,753) and predicted that 140,312 (17.42%) participants are likely to have COVID-19.

Citation

Menni, C., Valdes, A. M., Freidin, M. B., Sudre, C. H., Nguyen, L. H., Drew, D. A., …Spector, T. D. (2020). Real-time tracking of self-reported symptoms to predict potential COVID-19. Nature Medicine, 26, 1037-1040. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0916-2

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 4, 2020
Online Publication Date May 11, 2020
Publication Date Jul 1, 2020
Deposit Date May 12, 2020
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Journal Nature Medicine
Print ISSN 1078-8956
Electronic ISSN 1546-170X
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 26
Pages 1037-1040
DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0916-2
Keywords General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology; General Medicine
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/4422306
Publisher URL https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0916-2
Additional Information Received: 10 April 2020; Accepted: 30 April 2020; First Online: 11 May 2020; : T.D.S. and A.M.V. are consultants to Zoe Global. S.G. and J.W. are employees of Zoe Global.; Free to read: This content has been made available to all.

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